1 College Football Playoff Betting Action Report: 'All the Money is Can Be Found In On Texas'

Chasity Vanover edited this page 2025-01-16 00:10:30 +00:00

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The college football world was wishing for a March Madness kind of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the 4 first-round matchups underwhelmed, offering lots of time for holiday shopping. Favorites went a best 4-0 against the spread, consisting of 3 fairly non-competitive efficiencies by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee. Sportsbooks and the public do not appear to think so. A minimum of in two cases.
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Both Penn State-Boise State and Texas-Arizona State function double-digit spreads favoring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has been a particularly popular pick with the general public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in terms of total dollars since Monday afternoon.
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"All the cash is being available in on Texas," Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, composed in a text to The Athletic. "We need Arizona State to cover +13.5."

The enthusiasm for the Longhorns reaches the futures market too. Keep in mind that enormous $1.5 million wager on Texas to win all of it at +390 odds? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.

Interestingly, the Longhorns' challenger, Arizona State - the most significant underdog amongst the College Football quarterfinal matchups - is getting the most enjoy from sharp gamblers. The Athletic spoke with several bookies who had actually taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State - which had actually gotten as high as a 14-point underdog at some books versus No. 5 Texas - to press the line down to -12.5 or -12.
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John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, told us he received a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a "extremely reputable gamer."

Despite the fact that highly regarded money has actually can be found in on Arizona State to cover, sportsbooks will likely need the Sun Devils to do simply that, as public wagerers are stacking on Texas.

"We would love to see ASU cover, and after that Texas win the video game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book," Magee included.

While the Texas game will be big for the books, it isn't the only in town. We talked with multiple bookies to break down where the sports betting action is on the other three College Football quarterfinal matchups. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State

This video game opened Penn State -10.5 at the majority of sportsbooks and has actually crept up somewhat to an agreement of -11. sports betting on the spread is relatively divided at the majority of sportsbooks. The total dollars bet varies by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the cash at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets however only 42% of the cash at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is currently the second most popular CFP wager in terms of overall tickets at BetMGM books.

"We opened Penn State -10.5 and are sitting on Penn State -11," Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, informed The Athletic. "I wouldn't be amazed if this line approaches a little bit more before kickoff, but I currently invite any Boise State money."

Ohio State got the Oregon second chance it desired. Are the Buckeyes prepared for vengeance?

No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon

Perhaps most surprising to the public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an underdog versus No. 8 Ohio State. These teams fulfilled back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home canine.

So why is OSU preferred?

Several oddsmakers The Athletic spoke to before the CFP preliminary had Ohio State atop their power rankings, and the lookahead lines for this hypothetical matchup were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker mentioned that Ohio State playing up to its power ranking in its dominant first-round win over Tennessee likewise formed his opening line.

Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point preferred (depending upon the sportsbook) in this video game before reputable money pushed it to the current line of -2.5. A somewhat higher majority of wagers at a number of sportsbooks, approximately 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while near 60% of the money has been available in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle video game of the 4 come kickoff.

"We did take some reputable cash at -1.5, quickly went to -2.5 where it's remained," Gable said. "It's decent two-way action at that number today. The total has actually gone up 3 points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has been the greatest move of any of the overalls. Money has all been on the over up until now.
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Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that caters to sharp bettors, informed The Athletic that "Ohio State opened as a 1-point preferred, and right away our Ohio bettors believed we were too low. Our opening cost of Ohio State -1 has actually been increased to -2.5 and the total from 52 to 55."

He did note, however, that the book had actually seen substantial buyback at the present line of Ohio State -2.5 which 52% of the total dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.

GO DEEPER

The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff's second round

No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)

The favorite flipped in this game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point favorite and is currently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.

What caused the line flip? Put simply, the wagering action.
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Although Georgia's beginning QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has been changed by relative unknown Gunner Stockton, wagerers are gravitating toward the Bulldogs.

Georgia to cover is the most popular versus the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in regards to ticket count (second-most popular by overall dollars wagered), and it has actually been "one-way traffic on Georgia," according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at multiple sportsbooks.
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